{"id":40068,"date":"2026-01-24T13:03:37","date_gmt":"2026-01-24T12:03:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/?p=40068"},"modified":"2026-01-24T13:03:38","modified_gmt":"2026-01-24T12:03:38","slug":"pronostic-justin-gaethje-vs-paddy-pimblett-ufc-324-24-01-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/bookmakers\/news\/pronostic-justin-gaethje-vs-paddy-pimblett-ufc-324-24-01-2026","title":{"rendered":"Pronostic Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett &#8211; UFC 324 (24\/01\/2026)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Main event, ceinture int\u00e9rimaire des l\u00e9gers en jeu, 5 rounds sous les projecteurs de Las Vegas. D\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9, Justin Gaethje, 37 ans, v\u00e9t\u00e9ran de guerre et ex-champion int\u00e9rimaire. De l\u2019autre, Paddy Pimblett, 31 ans, invaincu \u00e0 l\u2019UFC et port\u00e9 par un \u00e9norme momentum.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Notre pari principal : victoire de Justin Gaethje<\/strong>. La cl\u00e9 ? Le match-up debout et la difficult\u00e9 extr\u00eame \u00e0 amener Gaethje au sol quand il s\u2019y pr\u00e9pare.<\/p>\n\n\n    <style>\r\n        \r\n    .mvz-prono-cta {\r\n        background: #f8fafc; \/* Fond clair *\/\r\n        border: 1px solid #e2e8f0;\r\n        border-radius: 12px;\r\n        padding: 20px;\r\n        margin: 30px 0;\r\n        display: flex;\r\n        flex-direction: column;\r\n        align-items: center;\r\n        text-align: center;\r\n        gap: 15px;\r\n        box-shadow: 0 4px 6px -1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05);\r\n    }\r\n    \r\n    .mvz-pc-header { display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 10px; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 5px; }\r\n    .mvz-pc-logo { height: 40px; width: auto; object-fit: contain; }\r\n    .mvz-pc-brand { font-size: 18px; font-weight: 800; color: #0f172a; text-transform: uppercase; }\r\n\r\n    .mvz-pc-offer { \r\n        font-size: 24px; font-weight: 900; color: #3b82f6; \r\n        line-height: 1.2; letter-spacing: -0.5px; \r\n    }\r\n    .mvz-pc-desc { font-size: 14px; color: #64748b; font-weight: 500; }\r\n\r\n    .mvz-pc-btn {\r\n        display: block; width: 100%; max-width: 300px;\r\n        background: #10b981; color: #ffffff !important;\r\n        text-decoration: none !important;\r\n        padding: 16px 24px;\r\n        border-radius: 8px;\r\n        font-size: 20px; font-weight: 800; text-transform: uppercase;\r\n        letter-spacing: 0.5px;\r\n        transition: transform 0.2s, background 0.2s, box-shadow 0.2s;\r\n        box-shadow: 0 4px 6px rgba(16, 185, 129, 0.25);\r\n        margin-top: 5px;\r\n    }\r\n    .mvz-pc-btn:hover {\r\n        background: #059669;\r\n        transform: translateY(-2px);\r\n        box-shadow: 0 10px 15px rgba(16, 185, 129, 0.4);\r\n    }\r\n    .mvz-pc-arrow { margin-left: 8px; font-size: 1.2em; display: inline-block; transition: transform 0.2s; }\r\n    .mvz-pc-btn:hover .mvz-pc-arrow { transform: translateX(5px); }\r\n\r\n    \/* Dark Mode (si support\u00e9) *\/\r\n    @media (prefers-color-scheme: dark) {\r\n        .mvz-prono-cta { background: #1e293b; border-color: #334155; }\r\n        .mvz-pc-brand { color: #f8fafc; }\r\n        .mvz-pc-offer { color: #60a5fa; }\r\n    }\r\n        <\/style>\r\n    <div class=\"mvz-prono-cta\">\r\n        <div class=\"mvz-pc-header\">\r\n                        <span class=\"mvz-pc-brand\">\r\n                Parions Sport            <\/span>\r\n        <\/div>\r\n\r\n        <div class=\"mvz-pc-content\">\r\n            <div class=\"mvz-pc-offer\">\r\n                100\u20ac OFFERTS\r\n            <\/div>\r\n            <div class=\"mvz-pc-desc\">Pour parier sur ce match<\/div>\r\n        <\/div>\r\n\r\n        <a href=\"https:\/\/wlfdj.adsrv.eacdn.com\/C.ashx?btag=a_982b_108c_&#038;affid=371&#038;siteid=982&#038;adid=108&#038;c=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow sponsored\" class=\"mvz-pc-btn\">\r\n            GO <span class=\"mvz-pc-arrow\">&gt;<\/span>\r\n        <\/a>\r\n    <\/div>\r\n    \n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le contexte<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u2019UFC 324 marque le retour d\u2019un tr\u00e8s gros main event apr\u00e8s plusieurs semaines creuses. La ceinture lightweight est vacante, le champion <a href=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/mma\/fighters\/ilia-topuria\" data-type=\"fighter\" data-id=\"6604\">Ilia Topuria<\/a> \u00e9tant indisponible pour de longs mois (raison personnelle, info fournie).<br>Ce combat est donc une opportunit\u00e9 unique : <strong>titre int\u00e9rimaire + exposition maximale<\/strong>.<br><a href=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/mma\/fighters\/justin-gaethje\" data-type=\"fighter\" data-id=\"6301\">Gaethje<\/a> joue probablement une <strong>derni\u00e8re carte au sommet<\/strong> \u00e0 37 ans. <a href=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/mma\/fighters\/paddy-pimblett\" data-type=\"fighter\" data-id=\"6764\">Pimblett<\/a>, lui, dispute <strong>son premier combat pour une ceinture UFC<\/strong>, apr\u00e8s une ascension fulgurante et tr\u00e8s m\u00e9diatis\u00e9e. Pression \u00e9norme des deux c\u00f4t\u00e9s, mais pas pour les m\u00eames raisons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ce que disent les chiffres<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Justin Gaethje<\/strong><br>37 ans, ancien champion int\u00e9rimaire, <strong>3 victoires sur ses 4 derniers combats<\/strong>. Il reste sur un succ\u00e8s \u00e0 la d\u00e9cision contre Rafael Fiziev (UFC 313), sa <strong>deuxi\u00e8me victoire contre lui<\/strong>.<br>Ses derni\u00e8res d\u00e9faites ? <a href=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/mma\/fighters\/khabib-nurmagomedov\" data-type=\"fighter\" data-id=\"6264\">Khabib<\/a> (soumission, 2020), <a href=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/mma\/fighters\/charles-oliveira\" data-type=\"fighter\" data-id=\"6267\">Charles Oliveira<\/a> (soumission, 2021), <a href=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/mma\/fighters\/max-holloway\" data-type=\"fighter\" data-id=\"6248\">Max Holloway<\/a> (KO, UFC 300 en 2024). Niveau \u00e9lite absolue uniquement.<br>Gaethje est r\u00e9put\u00e9 <strong>tr\u00e8s difficile \u00e0 contr\u00f4ler au sol<\/strong> quand il anticipe la lutte (avis concordant Smith \/ Chiesa).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Paddy Pimblett<\/strong><br>31 ans, <strong>invaincu \u00e0 l\u2019UFC (7-0)<\/strong>, personne ne l\u2019a jamais mis KO. Derni\u00e8re victoire marquante : <strong>KO au 3e round contre <a href=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/mma\/fighters\/michael-chandler\" data-type=\"fighter\" data-id=\"6638\">Michael Chandler<\/a><\/strong>.<br>Avant l\u2019UFC, plus de <strong>10 ans sur le circuit europ\u00e9en (Cage Warriors)<\/strong>.<br>Sur ses <strong>6 derniers combats<\/strong>, <strong>50 % gagn\u00e9s par soumission<\/strong>, avec des finishes d\u00e8s le round 1 ou 2. Premi\u00e8re chance de titre, mais aussi <strong>premier test face \u00e0 un vrai tueur du top historique<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les infos qui comptent (\u00e9tat, pr\u00e9paration)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gaethje arrive avec <strong>Trevor Wittman<\/strong>, gage d\u2019un gameplan disciplin\u00e9.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pimblett a promis <strong>\u201cune guerre\u201d<\/strong>, ce qui pose question sur sa gestion du risque face \u00e0 un striker aussi violent.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Implication directe :<br>\u27a1\ufe0f si Pimblett force les \u00e9changes trop t\u00f4t, <strong>le prix \u00e0 payer peut \u00eatre tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9<\/strong>.<br>\u27a1\ufe0f s\u2019il cherche la lutte, <strong>il devra encaisser pour y arriver<\/strong>, et \u00e7a use le cardio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le match-up (la cl\u00e9)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>O\u00f9 \u00e7a se gagne<\/strong><br>Debout, avantage clair Gaethje : low kicks, uppercuts courts, pression constante. Pimblett encaisse beaucoup et garde souvent haute.<br>Au sol, Pimblett est dangereux, mais <strong>mettre Gaethje au sol est d\u00e9j\u00e0 une victoire en soi<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sc\u00e9nario probable<\/strong><br>D\u00e9but tendu. Pimblett tente de mixer jab, teep kicks et menaces de takedown. Gaethje casse le rythme avec des frappes lourdes et d\u00e9fend la cage. Plus le combat avance, plus <strong>la violence cumulative<\/strong> favorise l\u2019Am\u00e9ricain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Point de bascule<\/strong><br>Les premi\u00e8res tentatives de lutte.<br>\u27a1\ufe0f Si Pimblett \u00e9choue et mange des contres, la dynamique bascule vite.<br>\u27a1\ufe0f S\u2019il r\u00e9ussit \u00e0 encha\u00eener les amen\u00e9es au sol sans trop de d\u00e9g\u00e2ts, il peut retourner le combat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Notre pronostic principal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/prono-parions-sport\">\u2705 Justin Gaethje gagne le combat &#8211; cote 2.90 (Parions Sport le 24\/01\/2026 \u00e0 12:45)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pourquoi ?<br>Parce que <strong>le style est un cauchemar pour Pimblett<\/strong>, comme l\u2019ont soulign\u00e9 Anthony Smith, Din Thomas et Michael Chiesa. Gaethje est <strong>tr\u00e8s dur \u00e0 amener au sol<\/strong>, et Pimblett <strong>encaisse beaucoup<\/strong>. Sur 5 rounds, l\u2019exp\u00e9rience et la pression debout peuvent faire la diff\u00e9rence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nos autres pronostics :<\/h3>\n\n\n    <div class=\"mvz-prono-secondary\"\r\n        style=\"background:#fff9e6; border-radius:12px; padding:15px; margin-top:20px; text-align:center; border:1px solid #fceeb5;\">\r\n        <h3 style=\"margin-bottom:12px; font-weight:700; font-size:15px; color:#333;text-transform:uppercase;\">\r\n            Nos autres pronostics        <\/h3>\r\n\r\n        <div class=\"mvz-ps-grid\" style=\"display:grid; grid-template-columns: 1fr 1fr; gap:12px;\">\r\n\r\n            <!-- Card 1 -->\r\n                            <a href=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/prono-unibet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow sponsored\"\r\n                    style=\"text-decoration:none; color:inherit; background:#fff; border:1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10px; padding:10px; display:flex; flex-direction:column; align-items:center; transition: all 0.2s ease;\">\r\n                    <span\r\n                        style=\"font-weight:700; font-size:13px; margin-bottom:5px; display:block; height:36px; display:flex; align-items:center; justify-content:center; text-align:center; width:100%; line-height:1.2;\">Gaethje gagne par KO\/TKO<\/span>\r\n                    <span class=\"mvz-pm-badge-cot\"\r\n                        style=\"font-size:14px; padding:3px 10px; margin-bottom:8px; background:#000; color:#fff; border-radius:6px;\">5<\/span>\r\n\r\n                    <div\r\n                        style=\"background:#299b5a; color:#fff; font-weight:700; padding:6px 12px; border-radius:50px; font-size:11px; width:100%; display:flex; align-items:center; justify-content:center; gap:5px;\">\r\n                        PARIER UNIBET                    <\/div>\r\n\r\n                                            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/unibet-logo-black-1.png\" alt=\"Unibet\"\r\n                             style=\"height: 16px; width: auto; object-fit: contain; margin-top: 8px; opacity: 0.9;\">\r\n                    \r\n                    <div style=\"font-size:10px; color:#d97706; margin-top:4px; font-weight:600; text-decoration:underline;\">\r\n                        100\u20ac offerts !\r\n                    <\/div>\r\n                <\/a>\r\n            \r\n            <!-- Card 2 -->\r\n                            <a href=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/prono-betson\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow sponsored\"\r\n                    style=\"text-decoration:none; color:inherit; background:#fff; border:1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10px; padding:10px; display:flex; flex-direction:column; align-items:center; transition: all 0.2s ease;\">\r\n                    <span\r\n                        style=\"font-weight:700; font-size:13px; margin-bottom:5px; display:block; height:36px; display:flex; align-items:center; justify-content:center; text-align:center; width:100%; line-height:1.2;\">Le combat ne va pas jusqu&#039;\u00e0 la d\u00e9cision<\/span>\r\n                    <span class=\"mvz-pm-badge-cot\"\r\n                        style=\"font-size:14px; padding:3px 10px; margin-bottom:8px; background:#000; color:#fff; border-radius:6px;\">1.25<\/span>\r\n\r\n                    <div\r\n                        style=\"background:#ff6601; color:#fff; font-weight:700; padding:6px 12px; border-radius:50px; font-size:11px; width:100%; display:flex; align-items:center; justify-content:center; gap:5px;\">\r\n                        PARIER BETSSON                    <\/div>\r\n\r\n                                            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/images.png\" alt=\"Betsson\"\r\n                             style=\"height: 16px; width: auto; object-fit: contain; margin-top: 8px; opacity: 0.9;\">\r\n                    \r\n                    <div style=\"font-size:10px; color:#d97706; margin-top:4px; font-weight:600; text-decoration:underline;\">\r\n                        100\u20ac offerts !\r\n                    <\/div>\r\n                <\/a>\r\n            \r\n        <\/div>\r\n    <\/div>\r\n    \n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gaethje gagne par KO\/TKO &#8211; cote 5 (<a href=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/prono-unibet\">Unibet<\/a> le 24\/01\/2026 \u00e0 12:48)<br><\/strong>Si Pimblett force la guerre qu\u2019il annonce, c\u2019est clairement le sc\u00e9nario le plus dangereux pour lui. Gaethje a d\u00e9j\u00e0 bris\u00e9 des mentons plus solides sur la dur\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Le combat ne va pas \u00e0 son terme &#8211; cote 1.25 (<a href=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/prono-unibet\">Betsson<\/a> le 24\/01\/2026 \u00e0 12:50)<br><\/strong>Deux profils agressifs, un enjeu \u00e9norme, et peu de place pour g\u00e9rer. La finition n\u2019est jamais loin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Focus combattant<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Paddy Pimblett &#8211; victoire par soumission &#8211; cote 1.98 (<a href=\"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/prono-unibet\">Betsson<\/a> le 24\/01\/2026 \u00e0 12:51)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c0 consid\u00e9rer <strong>si Pimblett impose tr\u00e8s t\u00f4t la lutte<\/strong>.<br>50 % de ses 6 derniers combats gagn\u00e9s par \u00e9tranglement, avec des finishes rapides. C\u2019est <strong>son chemin le plus clair vers la ceinture<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les cotes peuvent \u00e9voluer jusqu\u2019au combat. Parie avec lucidit\u00e9, joue responsable, <strong>uniquement si tu as +18 ans<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Main event, ceinture int\u00e9rimaire des l\u00e9gers en jeu, 5 rounds sous les projecteurs de Las Vegas. D\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9, Justin Gaethje, 37 ans, v\u00e9t\u00e9ran de guerre et ex-champion int\u00e9rimaire. De l\u2019autre, Paddy Pimblett, 31 ans, invaincu \u00e0 l\u2019UFC et port\u00e9 par un \u00e9norme momentum. Notre pari principal : victoire de Justin Gaethje. La cl\u00e9 ? Le [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":40071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"11","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40068","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bookmakers"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40068","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40068"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40068\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40071"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40068"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40068"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mvz-sports.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40068"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}